Re-acceleration, rotations, and macro turning points.
In this annual conversation, Geoff Castle, Lead Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income sits down with Callum Thomas, Head of Research at Topdown Charts to look back on last year’s big macro calls, then look ahead to 2026. They cover the case for a global growth re-acceleration, why bonds might still offer better value than equities, what Japan’s long bond is signalling, and how to think about commodities, currencies and private credit risk in a world of shifting cycles.
01:50
Reviewing last year’s four headline calls on the US dollar, global small value, commodities and bonds versus stocks, and what the “three out of four” scorecard says about Callum’s macro framework.
03:10
A framework for looking long-term at valuation ranges, positioning sentiment and monetary factors.
06:24
Why Callum now expects a global re-acceleration in 2026 instead of the widely feared slump, including how mini recessions beneath the surface in 2022 to 2024 set the stage for a turn.
07:50
Defining what “re-acceleration” really means in this context and how rate cuts, fiscal easing and the position of Europe, Japan and China in their respective cycles feed into that view.
10:19
A global version of “don’t fight the Fed”.
11:45
The “macro risk sandwich”?
13:54
Can bonds truly outperform stocks in a world of stronger growth?
16:50
Why US Treasuries screen as undervalued and unloved and how positioning, sentiment and technicals combine into a classic contrarian setup on duration.
21:00
Looking at the stock bond ratio for macro conditions, and how it tends to move as unemployment and the business cycle turn.
22:40
How global growth could re-accelerate even if the US hits a soft patch, and why a weaker US dollar and changing foreign flows into US equities could support a rotation to the rest of the world.
25:26
Zooming in on long bonds, Geoff asks what Japan’s sharp move in yields might mean for other heavy, highly indebted developed markets.
28:35
What Japan’s experience implies for country selection in global sovereign bond portfolios, and why bond investors may need to be more active across geographies than in the past.
33:57
On the topic of commodity markets, “What do you think about relative value in the commodity sector right now?”
37:57
Underinvestment, ESG constraints and a “CapEx depression” across resources, and why any growth upturn that runs into capacity limits could push commodity prices higher from here.
40:05
If 2026 turns out to be a bad year for markets, what went wrong? Geoff asks Callum to map the main risk paths and what to keep an eye on.
48:41
Is private credit a systemic threat or a portfolio construction trap? Callum outlines why it may be less likely to trigger a crisis, but still dangerous for allocators given illiquidity and governance constraints.
