{"id":74298,"date":"2026-08-04T10:16:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T17:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?p=74298"},"modified":"2026-08-24T08:41:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T15:41:22","slug":"the-paradox-of-skill-and-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/the-paradox-of-skill-and-luck\/","title":{"rendered":"Le paradoxe du talent et de la chance"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Pourquoi le processus l\u2019emporte parfois sur la performance.<\/em><\/p>\n

L\u2019un de mes balados pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9s est How I Built This<\/em>dans lequel Guy Raz demande \u00e0 des entrepreneurs r\u00e9put\u00e9s comment ils ont b\u00e2ti leurs soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. Je l\u2019\u00e9coute depuis des ann\u00e9es, en partie pour son c\u00f4t\u00e9 humain, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire pour ces moments o\u00f9 un authentique et primitif sentiment de doute et d\u2019\u00e9chec pr\u00e9c\u00e8de la r\u00e9ussite ultime. Cela humanise ces b\u00e2tisseurs comme peu de livres y parviennent.<\/p>\n

La question que j\u2019attends toujours avec impatience arrive \u00e0 la fin de chaque \u00e9pisode : leur r\u00e9ussite est-elle surtout due \u00e0 la chance ou \u00e0 leur savoir-faire?<\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9ponses varient autant que les ant\u00e9c\u00e9dents des invit\u00e9s. Ainsi, Tobias L\u00fctke, fondateur de Shopify, a r\u00e9pondu que son succ\u00e8s relevait \u00e0 90 % de la chance, comparant cela \u00e0 gagner \u00e0 la loterie cinq fois de suite. Pour sa part, Jen Rubio, co-fondatrice d\u2019Away, a dit que c\u2019\u00e9tait autant une question de chance que de travail acharn\u00e9. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, la fondatrice de Bumble, Whitney Wolfe Herd, a rejet\u00e9 d\u2019embl\u00e9e cette id\u00e9e en d\u00e9clarant qu\u2019elle doutait que ce soit une question de chance.<\/p>\n

J\u2019ai souvent r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 cette divergence de points de vue. Trois entrepreneurs, autant de r\u00e9ponses diff\u00e9rentes, toutes d\u00e9fendables.<\/p>\n

La question me fascinait tellement que, lorsque Guy Raz a publi\u00e9 Comment j\u2019ai mont\u00e9 ma bo\u00eete : Les \u00e9tonnants chemins vers le succ\u00e8s des entrepreneurs les plus inspirants de la plan\u00e8te<\/em>, j\u2019en ai aussit\u00f4t achet\u00e9 un exemplaire. J\u2019ai \u00e9t\u00e9 ravi de d\u00e9couvrir que lui-m\u00eame avait longuement r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 la question.<\/p>\n

Raz pense que la chance et le savoir-faire ne sont pas des forces oppos\u00e9es. Elles forment en fait un cercle vertueux. Le savoir-faire permet aux gens de reconna\u00eetre la chance quand elle se pr\u00e9sente et, surtout, d\u2019en tirer parti. Le moment et les circonstances comptent, mais c\u2019est l\u2019expertise, la pers\u00e9v\u00e9rance et le jugement qui donnent la capacit\u00e9 de saisir les occasions. C\u2019est ce qu\u2019il appelle le cercle vertueux de la chance et de la comp\u00e9tence.<\/p>\n

J\u2019ai aussi relu ce qu\u2019a \u00e9crit Michael Mauboussin sur le sujet. Pour ceux qui ne le connaissent pas, Mauboussin est responsable de Consilient Research chez Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Il enseigne aussi \u00e0 la Columbia Business School. Ici, chez Pender, c\u2019est un peu notre philosophe en r\u00e9sidence.<\/p>\n

Son article Untangling Skill and Luck<\/em>, qui lui a inspir\u00e9 The Success Equation<\/em>, est \u00e0 mon avis l\u2019un des traitements les plus rigoureux de la question. Guy Raz l\u2019aborde du point de vue des entrepreneurs; Mauboussin se sert des statistiques.<\/p>\n

Plus je m\u00e9dite sur le sujet, plus je pense que cela pourrait \u00eatre l\u2019une des notions les plus importantes en investissement et dans la vie.<\/p>\n

Le paradoxe<\/strong><\/p>\n

Commen\u00e7ons par d\u00e9finir les mots.<\/p>\n

Le savoir-faire est la capacit\u00e9 de se servir intelligemment de son savoir pour atteindre ses buts. La chance repose sur une suite d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements et de circonstances qui jouent en notre faveur ou en notre d\u00e9faveur.<\/p>\n

Mauboussin pose une question qui pourrait expliquer la diff\u00e9rence encore mieux que la d\u00e9finition de n\u2019importe quel dictionnaire : peut-on perdre expr\u00e8s?<\/p>\n

Si on ne le peut pas, la chance domine l\u2019activit\u00e9. Si on le peut, le savoir-faire joue un r\u00f4le pr\u00e9dominant.<\/p>\n

Le jeu de roulette repose presque totalement sur la chance. Les \u00e9checs demandent beaucoup de savoir-faire.<\/p>\n

Investir se trouve quelque part entre les deux, et c\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment pourquoi c\u2019est si difficile.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est rassurant de croire que r\u00e9ussir est surtout une affaire de chance. Cela suppose que les grands gagnants sont tout simplement n\u00e9s sous une bonne \u00e9toile. C\u2019est \u00e9galement tentant de croire que le succ\u00e8s se conquiert \u00e0 force de t\u00e9nacit\u00e9, de discipline et de jugement.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est nettement moins simpliste.<\/p>\n

Ce que nous savons cependant, c\u2019est que nous sommes programm\u00e9s pour tirer des explications \u00e0 partir des r\u00e9sultats. On pr\u00e9sume qu\u2019un grand succ\u00e8s est d\u00fb \u00e0 une bonne strat\u00e9gie. On impute un pi\u00e8tre r\u00e9sultat \u00e0 de mauvaises d\u00e9cisions.<\/p>\n

La plupart du temps, ce n\u2019est vrai ni dans un cas ni dans l\u2019autre.<\/p>\n

Parfois, les bonnes d\u00e9cisions perdent. Parfois, de tr\u00e8s mauvaises d\u00e9cisions gagnent.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est particuli\u00e8rement vrai en cas d\u2019horizon temporel rapproch\u00e9, qui est souvent le seul qui int\u00e9resse les gens.<\/p>\n

Cette phrase r\u00e9sume bien le paradoxe. Comme le dit Mauboussin, une bonne strat\u00e9gie peut donner de mauvais r\u00e9sultats, et une mauvaise peut en donner de bons.<\/p>\n

Dans une industrie o\u00f9 l\u2019on est jug\u00e9 tous les trois mois, cela peut \u00eatre difficile \u00e0 accepter.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Inspir\u00e9 du livre de\u00a0<\/strong>Michael J. Mauboussin \u201cUntangling Skill and Luck How to Think About Outcomes\u2014Past, Present, and Future\u201d<\/p>\n

Le grand jeu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cette id\u00e9e s\u2019est impos\u00e9e \u00e0 nous cet \u00e9t\u00e9 pendant que nous pr\u00e9parions notre balado sur la Coupe du monde de la FIFA. Le monde de l\u2019investissement est un lieu fascinant pour d\u00e9battre du rapport entre le savoir-faire et la chance, mais le sport constitue peut-\u00eatre le meilleur des laboratoires parce que ce qui passe est pris sur le vif.<\/p>\n

Ma bien-aim\u00e9e \u00e9quipe de soccer du Cap Vert, soit les Requins bleus, repr\u00e9sente une nation d\u2019environ 500 000 habitants. Il s\u2019agissait du plus petit pays du monde \u00e0 acc\u00e9der \u00e0 la huiti\u00e8me de finale apr\u00e8s avoir au passage clou\u00e9 le bec des Espagnols par un score nul. Le parcours de ceux-ci a pris fin sur un coup de t\u00eate d\u00e9vi\u00e9 lors des prolongations contre l\u2019Argentine, un \u00e9v\u00e9nement qualifi\u00e9 de \u00ab\u2009brillante d\u00e9fense\u2009\u00bb s\u2019il avantage un c\u00f4t\u00e9, de \u00ab\u2009malchance\u2009\u00bb s\u2019il d\u00e9favorise l\u2019autre.<\/p>\n

La d\u00e9faite du Br\u00e9sil nous l\u2019a rappel\u00e9. Un arr\u00eat sur tir de p\u00e9nalit\u00e9 d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, un but en fin de match de l\u2019autre, et la comp\u00e9tition a pris une tout autre tournure. Des petits moments comme celui-l\u00e0 alt\u00e8rent le cours d\u2019une carri\u00e8re, d\u2019une histoire et d\u2019un h\u00e9ritage.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est l\u2019une des raisons pour lesquelles le sport est si fascinant. Le hasard joue sur le terrain.<\/p>\n

Un tir de deux pouces vers la gauche, et personne n\u2019en parle. Deux pouces sur la droite, et vous devenez un h\u00e9ros!<\/p>\n

D\u00e9partager apr\u00e8s-coup la chance du savoir-faire est loin d\u2019\u00eatre facile.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Inspir\u00e9 du livre de\u00a0<\/strong>Michael J. Mauboussin \u201cUntangling Skill and Luck How to Think About Outcomes\u2014Past, Present, and Future\u201d<\/p>\n

Pourquoi notre cerveau ne capte pas<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u2019est l\u00e0 que la finance comportementale se joint \u00e0 la conversation.<\/p>\n

Il y a des d\u00e9cennies, les psychologues Amos Tversky et Daniel Kahneman ont popularis\u00e9 ce qu\u2019ils avaient nomm\u00e9 \u00ab\u2009la loi des petits nombres\u2009\u00bb \u2014 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire notre tendance \u00e0 tirer des conclusions radicales \u00e0 partir de seulement deux ou trois observations.<\/p>\n

Cinq transactions gagnantes. Une ann\u00e9e de performance remarquable. Une courte s\u00e9rie de victoires.<\/p>\n

Rien de tout cela ne nous en dit autant que nous aimons \u00e0 le croire.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est la pr\u00e9misse de Moneyball<\/em>. Billy Beane ne pr\u00e9tendait pas conna\u00eetre le baseball mieux que les autres. Mais il pensait que nombre des statistiques sur lesquelles, les gens se fondaient n\u2019\u00e9taient que du bruit, tandis qu\u2019une poign\u00e9e d\u2019autres, moins prestigieuses, \u00e9taient r\u00e9ellement pr\u00e9dictives.<\/p>\n

Il importe de savoir entendre le signal au c\u0153ur du bruit.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est ce d\u00e9fi que l\u2019on doit aussi relever en investissement. Les r\u00e9sultats financiers annuels rel\u00e8vent du bruit. Une strat\u00e9gie disciplin\u00e9e est nettement plus durable.<\/p>\n

Le probl\u00e8me est que, sur le moment, les deux semblent souvent identiques.<\/p>\n

Un autre biais complexifie notre jugement : l\u2019illusion du contr\u00f4le, notre inclination \u00e0 croire que nous ma\u00eetrisons davantage la situation que nous ne le faisons en r\u00e9alit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

On en voit des exemples partout. Des gens qui appuient encore et encore sur le bouton de passage pi\u00e9ton alors qu\u2019il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 activ\u00e9. Des athl\u00e8tes qui s\u2019accrochent \u00e0 leurs rituels. Des investisseurs qui attribuent chaque succ\u00e8s \u00e0 leur savoir-faire et chaque \u00e9chec \u00e0 la malchance.<\/p>\n

L\u2019impression de ma\u00eetriser les choses et le fait de les ma\u00eetriser r\u00e9ellement, c\u2019est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent, m\u00eame si nous, les maniaques du contr\u00f4le, aimerions qu\u2019il en soit autrement.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Inspir\u00e9 du livre de\u00a0<\/strong>Michael J. Mauboussin \u201cUntangling Skill and Luck How to Think About Outcomes\u2014Past, Present, and Future\u201d<\/p>\n

Alors quoi?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Si la chance compte autant, quel r\u00f4le joue le savoir-faire?<\/p>\n

Mauboussin le divise en trois cat\u00e9gories.<\/p>\n

Le savoir-faire analytique<\/strong> consiste \u00e0 identifier les projections mal \u00e9valu\u00e9es par le march\u00e9, et non \u00e0 simplement trouver de bonnes entreprises.<\/p>\n

Le savoir-faire comportemental<\/strong> n\u00e9cessite de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance d\u2019esprit, de la curiosit\u00e9 intellectuelle et la capacit\u00e9 de raisonner en termes de probabilit\u00e9s plut\u00f4t que de certitudes.<\/p>\n

Le savoir-faire organisationnel<\/strong> consiste \u00e0 mettre en place la structure et la culture n\u00e9cessaires au maintien d\u2019un processus rigoureux, m\u00eame quand les r\u00e9sultats ne sont pas ceux qu\u2019on escomptait.<\/p>\n

Cette derni\u00e8re cat\u00e9gorie est peut-\u00eatre la plus importante des trois.<\/p>\n

Une bonne strat\u00e9gie ne porte ses fruits que lorsqu\u2019on accepte de la suivre m\u00eame quand la situation devient inconfortable.<\/p>\n

Alors, quelle est la part du savoir-faire et celle de la chance dans le succ\u00e8s?<\/p>\n

Je ne pense pas qu\u2019on arrivera un jour \u00e0 d\u00e9nouer la question, et je me m\u00e9fie de qui affirme y \u00eatre parvenu. Posez la question \u00e0 Tobias L\u00fctke, Jen Rubio et Whitney Wolfe Herd, et vous obtiendrez trois r\u00e9ponses totalement diff\u00e9rentes.<\/p>\n

Ce que l\u2019on peut affirmer, c\u2019est que la chance, bonne ou mauvaise, joue toujours un r\u00f4le, et qu\u2019on ne peut agir r\u00e9ellement que sur le processus.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est peut-\u00eatre l\u00e0 le v\u00e9ritable paradoxe : nous consacrons beaucoup d\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e0 tenter de pr\u00e9dire les r\u00e9sultats, alors que la seule chose qui vaut vraiment la peine d\u2019\u00eatre ma\u00eetris\u00e9e est la qualit\u00e9 des d\u00e9cisions qui y m\u00e8nent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Veuillez lire les avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9 importants \u00e0\u00a0www.penderfund.com\/fr\/disclaimer\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement des fonds Pender sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici :\u00a0www.penderfund.com\/solutions\/<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why sometimes process matters more than performance. One of my go-to podcasts is How I Built This, where Guy Raz interviews some of the world\u2019s best-known entrepreneurs about how they built their companies. I\u2019ve been a listener for years, partly for the human side of it: the real, unpolished moments of doubt and failure that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":73026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"fund-type":[],"class_list":["post-74298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Paradox of Skill and Luck<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/the-paradox-of-skill-and-luck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Paradox of Skill and Luck\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why sometimes process matters more than performance. 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