{"id":73059,"date":"2025-11-17T15:17:54","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T23:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?p=73059"},"modified":"2026-03-24T15:26:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T22:26:29","slug":"on-luck-longevity-and-good-judgment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/on-luck-longevity-and-good-judgment\/","title":{"rendered":"On Luck, Longevity, and Good Judgment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cTo My Fellow Shareholders:<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">I will no longer be writing Berkshire\u2019s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0\u201cgoing quiet.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Sort of.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Each year, investors and business leaders look to the shareholders letters of Warren Buffet not for forecasts, but for perspective. For decades, his reflections on Berkshire Hathaway have offered something rare in markets: a long view, anchored in humility,\u00a0discipline\u00a0and acceptance of uncertainty.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In November 2025, shareholders received\u00a0Warren Buffett\u2019s\u202f<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flinks.morningbrew.com%2Fc%2FHmA%3Fmblid%3D5a41228cc91e%26mbcid%3D42451908.66291%26mid%3Deab337da93f229e916cbf9f3786bd27e%26mbuuid%3DvCBuHsEFbBjwUcYuxxZGJDFx&amp;data=05%7C02%7Clbaker%40penderfund.com%7Cd84b9d6c96d54b1ed3aa08de26261612%7C473aa0f3e13e4a558a4ead96ff56fc58%7C0%7C0%7C638990142261745960%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=L8t9dr%2FhVwdxdBkc%2FdBZbeQ%2Fh3uIdvCOGvJeAQ5Oyu0%3D&amp;reserved=0\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">last\u00a0shareholder letter<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0Now 95, Buffett has officially passed the torch to Canadian Greg Abel. This year\u2019s letter felt more nostalgic than most, with the Oracle of Omaha reflecting on the improbable luck, friendships, and circumstances that shaped his life.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">What\u00a0has made\u00a0Buffet\u2019s\u00a0letters endure is not their commentary on individual stocks. It is their focus on the deeper drivers of success. One of Buffet\u2019s recurring themes is the importance of place. He built one of the world\u2019s most successful businesses while living in Omaha.\u00a0A far cry from\u00a0traditional financial centres.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201c<\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha,\u00a0located\u00a0about two miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked for 64 years.<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cNew York had unique assets \u2013 and still does. Nevertheless, in 1956, after only 1\u00bd years, I returned to Omaha, never to wander again<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The lesson is not geographical \u2013 but philosophical. Stability,\u00a0community\u00a0and continuity can be advantages. Constant motion, by contrast, makes noise and favours short-term thinking.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The idea resonates in an industry that equates proximity to information with insight. Yet perspective is rarely a function of location. It is a function of time,\u00a0independence\u00a0and clarity of thought. The best decisions\u00a0can\u00a0come from stepping back, not leaning in.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As someone who has had the (dis)pleasure of shuttling back and forth between Toronto and Vancouver, these passages hit home. Working in this industry\u00a0--\u00a0our industry\u00a0--\u00a0I was convinced that at some point I would be in Toronto for good.\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0happy to admit I was\u00a0wrong. Through my journey back to the West\u00a0Coast,\u00a0I have realised\u00a0this city has its own gravitational pull. To borrow Buffett\u2019s words,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0a place that makes me never want to wander again.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On humility<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Perhaps the\u00a0most striking element of Buffett\u2019s writing is his willingness to acknowledge luck. He has repeatedly pointed out that being born healthy, in a stable country, at a particular moment in history, creates opportunities that talent alone cannot guarantee. Many people with equal intelligence and drive never receive the same opportunities.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cThose who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck, daily escaping banana peels, natural disasters, drunk or distracted drivers, lightning strikes, you name it. But Lady Luck is fickle and \u2013 no other term fits \u2013 wildly unfair. In many cases, our leaders and the rich have received far more than their share of luck \u2013 which, too often, the recipients prefer not to acknowledge. [\u2026] In many\u00a0heavily-populated\u00a0parts of the world, I would\u00a0likely have\u00a0had a miserable\u00a0life\u00a0and my sisters would have had one even worse. I was born in 1930 healthy,\u00a0reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America. Wow! Thank you, Lady Luck. My sisters had equal intelligence and better personalities than I but faced a much different outlook. Lady Luck continued to drop by during much of my life, but she has better things to do than work with those in their 90s. Luck has its limits.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">These sentiments pair well with his reflections about Omaha,\u00a0about home, community, and the distribution of fortune.\u00a0\u00a0As we make our way through\u00a0the\u00a0year\u00a0I\u2019ve\u00a0been thinking about how much of our trajectory\u00a0(personally and professionally)\u00a0comes down to timing, circumstance, and the people around us, as well as which metaphorical banana peels, we managed not to slip on.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">While Buffett did\u00a0not\u00a0dwell much on specific investments this\u00a0time, he noted that\u00a0good ideas\u00a0still occasionally find him...he just has\u00a0not\u00a0heard any he particularly likes. The result? Berkshire is sitting on a staggering cash hoard of just under $382\u00a0billion.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It\u00a0is\u00a0bittersweet to see Buffett step down from the helm, but he\u00a0has promised\u00a0to continue writing an annual Thanksgiving letter to share what\u00a0is\u00a0on his mind. And frankly, this year\u2019s letter is a masterclass in expectation setting, humility, long-term thinking, governance, and resilience. Buffett is\u00a0not selling you the next\u00a0big thing; he\u00a0is\u00a0preparing shareholders for moderate outperformance, inevitable volatility, and a multigenerational transition that prioritizes longevity over headlines.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">He also warns,\u00a0gently but deliberately,\u00a0about ego, envy, and distorted incentives, the traps that derail many organisations. For anyone managing money, the\u00a0lesson is simple: build durable structures, avoid disasters, stay patient, acknowledge luck, and get incentives right.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Even after stepping back from CEO duties, Buffett\u2019s writing will remain essential reading not only for investors, but for anyone who cares about stewardship, judgment, and the psychology of decision-making.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">10 Investment &amp; Wisdom Quotes from Warren Buffett\u2019s 2025 Thanksgiving Letter<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cDon\u2019t\u00a0beat yourself up over past mistakes \u2013 learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cGet the right heroes and copy them.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cChoose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cDecide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"5\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cGreatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"6\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cWhen you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"7\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cIt\u2019s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"8\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so...\u00a0Don\u2019t\u00a0despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"9\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cBerkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"%1.\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769242&quot;:[65533,0],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;%1.&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;multilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"10\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cRuling from the grave does not have a great record, and I have never had an urge to do so.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Please read important disclosures at\u202f<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.penderfund.com%2Fdisclaimer&amp;data=05%7C02%7Clbaker%40penderfund.com%7C55f1ab47d688411afe3c08de37498b65%7C473aa0f3e13e4a558a4ead96ff56fc58%7C0%7C0%7C639008986214529352%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=XZYj6oXc4Tk%2B6m9VyV3u3liYnfJMMkWNTaPUWy6Kwic%3D&amp;reserved=0\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">www.penderfund.com\/disclaimer<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Standard performance data for Pender Funds can be found at\u202f<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.penderfund.com%2Fsolutions%2F&amp;data=05%7C02%7Clbaker%40penderfund.com%7C55f1ab47d688411afe3c08de37498b65%7C473aa0f3e13e4a558a4ead96ff56fc58%7C0%7C0%7C639008986214571706%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=UBdhYqgevhfhOD7Z9RF5ctaai1YAqGN5HeT6yWI3OOY%3D&amp;reserved=0\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">www.penderfund.com\/solutions\/<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cTo My Fellow Shareholders:\u00a0 I will no longer be writing Berkshire\u2019s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0\u201cgoing quiet.\u201d\u00a0 Sort of.\u201d\u00a0 Each year, investors and business leaders look to the shareholders letters of Warren Buffet not for forecasts, but for perspective. For decades, his reflections on Berkshire Hathaway [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":73026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"fund-type":[],"class_list":["post-73059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6.1 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>On Luck, Longevity, and Good Judgment - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/on-luck-longevity-and-good-judgment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"On Luck, Longevity, and Good Judgment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cTo My Fellow Shareholders:\u00a0 I will no longer be writing Berkshire\u2019s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0\u201cgoing quiet.\u201d\u00a0 Sort of.\u201d\u00a0 Each year, investors and business leaders look to the shareholders letters of Warren Buffet not for forecasts, but for perspective. 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