Discussion de l\u2019auteur prim\u00e9 Morgan Housel sur les risques, les pi\u00e8ges li\u00e9s aux donn\u00e9es et la fa\u00e7on d\u2019\u00eatre plus heureux avec Amar Pandya de PenderFund, pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e par la CFA Society Vancouver<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009Le risque, c\u2019est ce qu\u2019on ne voit pas.\u2009\u00bb<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Les plus grands risques sont le fruit d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements inconnus et impr\u00e9visibles. Non seulement personne ne les a venu venir, mais il \u00e9tait impossible de m\u00eame les envisager, a affirm\u00e9 M. Housel. Il a donn\u00e9 des exemples, comme l\u2019attaque de Pearl Harbor, 9\/11, l\u2019effondrement de Lehman Brothers, la pand\u00e9mie de Covid et, plus r\u00e9cemment, l\u2019aggravation du conflit au Moyen-Orient. Au d\u00e9but de chaque nouvelle ann\u00e9e en janvier, des publications comme The Wall Street Journal \u00e9mettent des pr\u00e9dictions sur l\u2019\u00e9volution possible de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale au cours des 12 mois \u00e0 venir. In\u00e9vitablement, le ou les plus grands risques qui menacent l\u2019\u00e9conomie ne sont jamais mentionn\u00e9s.<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009Le risque, c\u2019est ce qu\u2019on ne voit pas, a-t-il lanc\u00e9. Si vous ne pouvez pas envisager un risque, vous ne pouvez pas vous y pr\u00e9parer, et si vous n\u2019\u00eates pas pr\u00eat lorsqu\u2019il arrive, les dommages perp\u00e9tr\u00e9s seront amplifi\u00e9s. Il n\u2019y a aucune formule, aucune solution pour rem\u00e9dier au fait que le risque est invisible. Les gens posent fr\u00e9quemment la question : \u2018Quel sera le prochain cygne noir?\u2019 Mais la question est peine perdue puisque de tels \u00e9v\u00e9nements ne sont jamais connus \u2013 c\u2019est la raison pour laquelle ils prennent une telle ampleur.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
Housel a deux recommandations cl\u00e9s pour envisager les \u00e9v\u00e9nements mondiaux de fa\u00e7on plus saine. D\u2019abord : accepter que les risques soient inconnus. Puis ensuite : investir en pr\u00e9paration et non en pr\u00e9vision. \u00ab\u2009Il y a une \u00e9norme diff\u00e9rence entre pr\u00e9voir quand la prochaine r\u00e9cession va frapper et se pr\u00e9valoir d\u2019une r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif qui vous permettra de survivre \u00e0 la r\u00e9cession lorsqu\u2019elle se pr\u00e9sentera. Les attentes et les pr\u00e9visions sont deux choses tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes. Tant de choses ne changent jamais et il n\u2019y a aucune solution pour y rem\u00e9dier. Vous n\u2019arriverez jamais \u00e0 r\u00e9gler ce probl\u00e8me.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009La majorit\u00e9 de nos croyances s\u2019appuie sur notre exp\u00e9rience personnelle.\u2009\u00bb<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u00ab\u2009Nous ne devrions pas pr\u00e9tendre que si nous \u00e9tions n\u00e9s en Afrique dans les ann\u00e9es 1700, nous aurions les m\u00eames opinions sur le capitalisme que celles que nous avons aujourd\u2019hui. Nos opinions sont fa\u00e7onn\u00e9es par des faits compl\u00e8tement al\u00e9atoires, comme le moment et l\u2019endroit o\u00f9 nous sommes n\u00e9s. Je crois au libre arbitre, mais la majorit\u00e9 de ce que nous pensons \u00e0 propos de l\u2019\u00e9conomie est bas\u00e9e sur des exp\u00e9riences personnelles, les n\u00f4tres et celles de nos parents et grands-parents. En tant qu\u2019individus, toute notre fa\u00e7on d\u2019envisager l\u2019\u00e9conomie a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par l\u2019endroit et le moment de notre naissance, ainsi que les personnes de qui nous sommes n\u00e9s.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
Par ailleurs, M. Housel recommande de cultiver l\u2019humilit\u00e9, car une bonne partie de ce qui arrive en finance consiste \u00e0 \u00e9viter les exc\u00e8s de confiance. \u00ab\u2009Lorsqu\u2019on retrouve la modestie et qu\u2019on r\u00e9alise \u00e0 quel point le monde peut \u00eatre fragile, on est alors moins tent\u00e9 d\u2019essayer de pr\u00e9dire des choses qui sont impr\u00e9visibles. Vous pourriez tout perdre en l\u2019espace de quelques secondes.\u2009\u00bb Pour illustrer son propos, M. Housel a relat\u00e9 une entrevue qu\u2019il a men\u00e9e aupr\u00e8s de Daniel Kahneman, \u00e9conomiste gagnant d\u2019un prix Nobel qui, lors de leur discussion, a affirm\u00e9 \u00eatre la personne la plus pessimiste sur terre. M. Housel a trouv\u00e9 cette affirmation surprenante jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce M. Kahneman lui explique avoir grandi dans une famille juive en France lors de l\u2019occupation nazie de la Deuxi\u00e8me Guerre mondiale. L\u2019impression que, peu importe votre niveau de confort sur terre, tout peut vous \u00eatre retir\u00e9 en une seconde est demeur\u00e9e avec lui toute sa vie.<\/p>\n
Investir : le hasard et les comp\u00e9tences<\/h3>\n
\u00ab\u2009Le hasard est int\u00e9ressant. Il joue un \u00e9norme r\u00f4le sur l\u2019\u00e9chiquier \u00e9conomique mondial, mais il est tr\u00e8s difficile d\u2019en parler. Peut-\u00eatre qu\u2019une meilleure fa\u00e7on de l\u2019envisager consiste \u00e0 se demander : \u2018qu\u2019est-ce qu\u2019on peut reproduire?\u2019 Lorsque vous pensez \u00e0 vos mod\u00e8les du monde financier, peu importe qui ils ou elles sont, il est utile de pouvoir rep\u00e9rer les gestes qu\u2019ils ont pos\u00e9s et que vous pourriez reproduire. M. Housel s\u2019est servi de l\u2019exemple de Warren Buffett \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard. On a beaucoup \u00e0 apprendre de lui, mais personne ne peut recr\u00e9er les conditions \u00e9conomiques et commerciales de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique des ann\u00e9es 1950, moment o\u00f9 M. Buffett a achet\u00e9 ses actions de premier ordre. \u00ab\u2009Il faut rechercher les comp\u00e9tences que l\u2019on peut reproduire\u2009\u00bb, a conseill\u00e9 M. Housel.<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009Aucun chiffrier Excel n\u2019arrivera \u00e0 changer fondamentalement la quantit\u00e9 de dopamine ou de cortisol dans votre cerveau.\u2009\u00bb<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Selon Daniel Kahneman, la meilleure d\u00e9finition de risque est la suivante : ce qui deviendra votre plus grande source de regrets \u00e0 l\u2019avenir. En ce sens, un bon investisseur doit donc se questionner en fonction de ce constat pour en arriver \u00e0 une impression bien calibr\u00e9e de ses regrets futurs. On en conclut \u00e9galement qu\u2019il n\u2019existe pas une seule d\u00e9finition du risque qui convient \u00e0 tous. Jeff Bezos aurait d\u00e9j\u00e0 dit savoir qu\u2019il n\u2019aurait eu aucun regret \u00e0 \u00e9chouer de mettre sur pied Amazon, mais qu\u2019il aurait eu des regrets s\u2019il n\u2019avait pas essay\u00e9.<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009Je suis diff\u00e9rent, a affirm\u00e9 M. Housel. Si j\u2019avais pass\u00e9 cinq ans de ma vie \u00e0 tenter de lancer une entreprise et que le tout s\u2019\u00e9tait sold\u00e9 par un \u00e9chec, j\u2019aurais certainement eu beaucoup de regrets. Chaque personne a une fa\u00e7on diff\u00e9rente d\u2019envisager le risque. Il est impossible de le faire rentrer dans une quelconque formule. Si le probl\u00e8me est comportemental, disposer de plus de donn\u00e9es n\u2019aidera en rien la cause. Aucun chiffrier Excel n\u2019arrivera \u00e0 changer fondamentalement la quantit\u00e9 de dopamine ou de cortisol dans votre cerveau.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
Une des plus grandes le\u00e7ons tir\u00e9es par M. Housel est la suivante : la plupart des d\u00e9bats financiers mettent en sc\u00e8ne diff\u00e9rentes tol\u00e9rances au risque, une vari\u00e9t\u00e9 d\u2019horizons temporels et diverses personnes qui parlent toutes en m\u00eame temps. Comme la finance fait intervenir des math\u00e9matiques, a-t-il pr\u00e9cis\u00e9, il est tentant de croire qu\u2019il existe une seule bonne r\u00e9ponse. \u00ab\u2009La finance qui est enseign\u00e9e laisse croire qu\u2019il existe une bonne r\u00e9ponse. Or, il faut absolument s\u2019\u00e9loigner de cette hypoth\u00e8se. Ce faisant, le processus de d\u00e9cision sera de beaucoup simplifi\u00e9. Certains conseils se r\u00e9v\u00e9leront avantageux pour moi, mais d\u00e9sastreux pour vous. Personne ne devrait avoir la m\u00eame r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif. J\u2019ai pris des d\u00e9cisions financi\u00e8res qui causeraient de la confusion chez bon nombre de mes amis beaucoup plus intelligents. Mais ces d\u00e9cisions me permettent de bien dormir la nuit et cela me suffit amplement. Je suis \u00e9motionnel, tout comme vous d\u2019ailleurs. Nous devons donc assumer \u00e0 quel point les finances personnelles sont, dans les faits, personnelles. Il faut savoir quand les donn\u00e9es apportent quelque chose de positif et quand elles ne servent qu\u2019\u00e0 vous faire d\u00e9vier du droit chemin.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
\u00ab\u2009Chaque g\u00e9n\u00e9ration devient plus riche\u2026 mais pas plus heureuse.\u2009\u00bb<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
L\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie s\u2019est allong\u00e9e pour la plupart des humains. La richesse aussi a augment\u00e9 pour la plupart. Nous tirons parti de meilleures technologies et de meilleurs m\u00e9dicaments et moins de gens vivent dans la pauvret\u00e9. Et pourtant, malgr\u00e9 ces am\u00e9liorations de la qualit\u00e9 de vie, personne ne semble plus heureux. Voil\u00e0 un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui \u00ab\u2009ne changent jamais\u2009\u00bb, affirme M. Housel. \u00ab\u2009Il n\u2019y a encore l\u00e0 aucune solution, car nos attentes s\u2019accroissent au m\u00eame rythme que notre prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9.\u2009\u00bb Il est vrai, en situation de pauvret\u00e9, qu\u2019une augmentation de salaire puisse se traduire par un plus grand bonheur, mais pour la personne moyenne, cette corr\u00e9lation ne fonctionne pas, a-t-il ajout\u00e9. \u00ab\u2009Les Am\u00e9ricains ne se r\u00e9veillent pas heureux tous les matins parce qu\u2019il existe un vaccin contre la polio. Nous repoussons toujours plus loin les jalons du bonheur. J\u2019aimerais vivre dans un monde o\u00f9 mes petits enfants n\u2019auront pas \u00e0 craindre le cancer. La joie ressentie \u00e0 l\u2019arriv\u00e9e d\u2019un rem\u00e8de sera br\u00e8ve, car il deviendra vite un acquis.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n
Donc, le conseil de M. Housel est le suivant : essayer de comprendre le jeu auquel vous jouez et rep\u00e9rer \u00e0 quoi sert l\u2019argent dans votre vie. Vous en servez-vous pour avoir une vie meilleure ou comme moyen de vous mesurer \u00e0 votre voisin?<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Award-winning Morgan Housel discusses risk, data traps, and how to be happier with PenderFund\u2019s Amar Pandya presented by the CFA Society Vancouver \u201cRisk is what you don\u2019t see.\u201d- Morgan Housel The biggest risks come from unknown, unpredictable events that, not only did nobody see coming, but were impossible to see coming, said Housel. He gave […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":70334,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[173],"fund-type":[],"class_list":["post-70333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-events"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Award-winning Morgan Housel discusses risk, data traps, and how to be happier - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/articles\/award-winning-morgan-housel-discusses-risk-data-traps-and-how-to-be-happier\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Award-winning Morgan Housel discusses risk, data traps, and how to be happier\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Award-winning Morgan Housel discusses risk, data traps, and how to be happier with PenderFund\u2019s Amar Pandya presented by the CFA Society Vancouver \u201cRisk is what you don\u2019t see.\u201d- Morgan Housel The biggest risks come from unknown, unpredictable events that, not only did nobody see coming, but were impossible to see coming, said Housel. 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