{"id":74365,"date":"2026-08-19T10:14:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T17:14:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=74365"},"modified":"2026-08-20T09:06:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T16:06:50","slug":"pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender - juillet 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Perspectives de march\u00e9<\/h3>\n

En juillet, on a quelques fois eu l\u2019impression que les march\u00e9s allaient finalement s\u2019effondrer. Au bout de nombreux mois pendant lesquels les manchettes alarmistes et les signaux de mauvais augure avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 balay\u00e9s du revers de la main, la correction que plusieurs attendaient semblait imminente. Pourtant, \u00e7a ne s\u2019est jamais vraiment produit ainsi.<\/p>\n

Comme d\u2019habitude, le march\u00e9 obligataire a \u00e9t\u00e9 le premier \u00e0 r\u00e9agir. Cette ann\u00e9e, on aurait d\u00fb assister \u00e0 une chute des rendements obligataires. Or, ils ont mont\u00e9. L\u2019inflation soutenue, caus\u00e9e en partie par la flamb\u00e9e du prix du p\u00e9trole, a frein\u00e9 leur d\u00e9clin, ce qui pose probl\u00e8me. Plus longtemps les rendements restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, plus ils ont un effet sur les d\u00e9penses des consommateurs et les marges de profit des entreprises. Pour que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices prennent leur envol, il faut que les charges d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats diminuent.<\/p>\n

Cette question est devenue un souci pour le nouveau pr\u00e9sident du FOMC qui se trouve visiblement assis entre deux chaises. Il a \u00e9t\u00e9 nomm\u00e9 parce qu\u2019on attendait de lui qu\u2019il r\u00e9duise d\u2019embl\u00e9e les taux, mais ce mandat est de plus en plus difficile \u00e0 honorer. M\u00eame si les r\u00e9centes donn\u00e9es quant \u00e0 l\u2019inflation sont plus encourageantes, l\u2019enjeu demeure. Une inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9e jumel\u00e9e \u00e0 des indices boursiers records cr\u00e9e la plupart du temps une toile de fond propice \u00e0 la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, et non \u00e0 leur baisse.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est sur cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9 que les march\u00e9s boursiers ont ouvert les yeux au milieu du mois. La reprise des hostilit\u00e9s entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran a fait bondir le brent au-dessus des 100 $ le baril. Les obligations \u00e0 10 ans des \u00c9tats-Unis en ont pris bonne note et leur rendement a atteint leur sommet de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Au m\u00eame moment, les entreprises ont publi\u00e9 leurs r\u00e9sultats et, \u00e0 la suite des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices records des banques, les premiers rapports financiers \u00e9mis par les grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques ont d\u00e9\u00e7u les attentes. Si pendant quelques trimestres, les investisseurs avaient applaudi les d\u00e9penses croissantes en IA, voil\u00e0 qu\u2019ils commen\u00e7aient \u00e0 se pr\u00e9occuper du rendement du capital investi.<\/p>\n

Le premier d\u00e9clencheur ayant provoqu\u00e9 la chute du march\u00e9 est venu de l\u2019Asie. Les actions des semiconducteurs et des puces m\u00e9moires, \u00e9tant des composants essentiels aux centres de donn\u00e9es de l\u2019IA, avaient bondi au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Toutefois, comme on l\u2019observe en p\u00e9riode de fi\u00e8vre, l\u2019activit\u00e9 sp\u00e9culative a pris le dessus, et la peur de rater quelque chose a remplac\u00e9 l\u2019investissement fondamental. Ajoutons \u00e0 cela la multiplication des FNB \u00e0 double ou triple levier sur une seule action, et on obtient des fluctuations spectaculaires. \u00c0 preuve, le prix de l\u2019action de l\u2019indice KOSPI. Le march\u00e9 cor\u00e9en est fortement domin\u00e9 par les compagnies de semiconducteurs. \u00c0 un certain moment de juin, l\u2019indice cor\u00e9en \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieur de pr\u00e8s de 130 % sur une base annuelle, mais la gravit\u00e9 l\u2019a rattrap\u00e9 et il a d\u00e9gringol\u00e9 de 40 % en juillet. Selon nous, ce genre de mouvements sont ceux que l\u2019on voit quand le march\u00e9 est \u00e0 son plus haut et non \u00e0 son plus bas.<\/p>\n

On a aussi vu un fonds sp\u00e9culatif conventionnel voler en \u00e9clat pendant le mois, ce qui a rench\u00e9ri sur la volatilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gnante en fin de mois. Nomm\u00e9 avec \u00e0-propos \u00ab\u2009Situational Awareness \u00bb, le fonds s\u2019est retrouv\u00e9 du mauvais c\u00f4t\u00e9 du commerce des semiconducteurs, et quand la tendance s\u2019est invers\u00e9e, il a d\u00fb vendre ses positions \u00e0 des fonds concurrents \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture du mois. De tels \u00e9v\u00e9nements ne sont pas inhabituels, mais ils peuvent pr\u00e9cipiter une tendance s\u2019ils se produisent apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode d\u2019extr\u00eame agitation, et durant la saison estivale aux volumes moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 ces faits marquants, le mois s\u2019est termin\u00e9 dans un calme plat, ce qui devrait \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une victoire. Les march\u00e9s boursiers continuent d\u2019escalader \u00ab\u2009le mur de l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude\u2009\u00bb et demeurent \u00e0 des sommets in\u00e9gal\u00e9s \u00e0 ce jour. Comme les valorisations de plusieurs secteurs atteignent des niveaux records, il est n\u00e9cessaire que les rendements poursuivent leur croissance si l\u2019on veut que les march\u00e9s progressent. Cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, mais la question est de savoir si cela peut durer longtemps.<\/p>\n

L\u2019argument plaidant en faveur d\u2019une hausse des actions mise sur une rotation entre les secteurs qui m\u00e8nent et ceux qui tra\u00eenent, rotation qui devrait propulser l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9 vers le haut. Mais il suffirait d\u2019un grand titre (ou d\u2019un commentaire sur X) pour que tout cela s\u2019\u00e9croule. Nous devons garder l\u2019\u0153il sur le prix du p\u00e9trole et sur les taux de rendement. Les march\u00e9s boursiers estiment que cette flamb\u00e9e \u00e0 court terme est temporaire, mais les investisseurs se font prudents. Qui des deux a raison, c\u2019est ce que nous r\u00e9v\u00e9lera le reste de 2026.<\/p>\n

Alors que nous entrons dans les deux mois les plus volatils de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, les investisseurs qui suivent les fluctuations saisonni\u00e8res pourraient \u00eatre tent\u00e9s d\u2019adopter une attitude plus d\u00e9fensive. Les valorisations actuelles semblent prendre en compte une foule de bonnes nouvelles. Toutefois, \u00e0 l\u2019approche des r\u00e9unions \u00e0 l\u2019issue impr\u00e9visible du FOMC et des \u00e9lections \u00e9tats-uniennes, la situation risque d\u2019\u00eatre moins rose qu\u2019elle en a l\u2019air. En cette ann\u00e9e dont le d\u00e9roulement d\u00e9fie les pr\u00e9visions, l\u2019avenir demeure incertain. Mais il y aura des occasions. Pour ceux qui les cherchent \u00e9videmment.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le Fonds<\/h3>\n

En juillet, le Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender a affich\u00e9 un rendement de -0,6 %1<\/a><\/sup> pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 18,5 %. Comparativement, l\u2019indice compos\u00e9 S&P\/TSX a d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un gain de 1,2 % en juillet et un cumul annuel de 12,6 %. La surpond\u00e9ration du secteur des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res a eu l\u2019effet d\u2019un boulet sur le rendement, lequel a cependant \u00e9t\u00e9 favorablement contrebalanc\u00e9 par des gains issus du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. Selon nous, le Fonds b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera de l\u2019ajout de plusieurs fournisseurs de donn\u00e9es \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle pendant le mois pour se remettre solidement sur pied en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n

La vigueur des banques canadiennes figure parmi les plus grandes surprises de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Ce groupe a surperform\u00e9 l\u2019ensemble des banques mondiales ainsi que la plupart des secteurs au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e9coul\u00e9e. Selon nous, ce secteur a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 du rapatriement de capitaux vers le Canada d\u2019une part, et d\u2019autre part d\u2019une meilleure compr\u00e9hension de l\u2019\u00e9volution du fonctionnement de ses mod\u00e8les \u00e9conomiques, ce qui les rend moins volatils qu\u2019auparavant. Le Fonds n\u2019a cependant pas pris part \u00e0 cette hausse, car ce groupe ne s\u2019inscrivait pas dans nos principaux th\u00e8mes d\u2019investissement (ax\u00e9s sur les actifs r\u00e9els et l\u2019intelligence artificielle) que nous continuons de privil\u00e9gier \u00e0 long terme. Il sera int\u00e9ressant de surveiller les prochains r\u00e9sultats financiers de ces banques pour voir si elles arriveront \u00e0 justifier ces mouvements dans leurs cours.<\/p>\n

Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt, nous avons observ\u00e9 un certain ralentissement de la hausse du dollar am\u00e9ricain. Nous pensons que cela devrait \u00eatre favorable pour le secteur des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res (et plus particuli\u00e8rement celui de l\u2019or) dans lequel nous maintenons une surpond\u00e9ration. Nous avons d\u2019ailleurs augment\u00e9 nos participations \u00e0 ARTG et BYN. Compte tenu de la saisonnalit\u00e9 et du risque de volatilit\u00e9 accrue \u00e0 l\u2019approche de la prochaine r\u00e9union du FOMC et des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat aux \u00c9tats-Unis, nous avons rench\u00e9ri sur nos couvertures et augment\u00e9 nos liquidit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Greg Taylor, CFA
\n<\/strong>19 ao\u00fbt 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/a> <\/sup>Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement des fonds alternatifs liquides de Pender sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund\/<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Insights At various points during July, it started to feel like markets were finally going to break. After months of defying negative headlines and ominous signals, this seemed to be the window for the correction many had been waiting for. Yet, it never really played out that way. As usual the bond market caught […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":70749,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"fund-type":[45,135],"class_list":["post-74365","commentaries","type-commentaries","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","fund-type-pender-liquid-alternative-funds","fund-type-pender-alternative-select-equity-fund"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPender Alternative Select Equity Fund - July 2026 - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-july-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pender Alternative Select Equity Fund - July 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Insights At various points during July, it started to feel like markets were finally going to break. 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