{"id":74093,"date":"2026-07-09T15:53:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T22:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=74093"},"modified":"2026-07-10T15:59:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T22:59:19","slug":"pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-june-2026","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-june-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Pender Alternative Select Equity Fund - June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Perspectives de march\u00e9<\/h3>\n

La premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 faite d\u2019un peu de tout. Nous en sommes tous arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 attendre l\u2019inattendu du pr\u00e9sident Trump, mais les \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui se sont d\u00e9roul\u00e9s ont pris de court m\u00eame les plus cyniques d\u2019entre nous.<\/p>\n

Heading into 2026, one of the consensus calls was that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would cut interest rates. They were one of the last central banks to normalize policy after the aggressive rate hikes over the past few years, and it was time to correct that. Inflation was expected to fall and yields would follow. But as is often the case when everyone agrees, that wasn\u2019t what happened.<\/p>\n

It started with a shocking strike on Venezuela that resulted in the US essentially taking control of the country (and its oil reserves) in a matter of hours. Markets appeared to cheer this outcome and that likely embolden President Trump to take further action. After a year of tariff wars, the pivot was to actual combat wars.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 la fin de f\u00e9vrier, les attaques contre l\u2019Iran ont commenc\u00e9 et on s\u2019attendait \u00e0 ce que cela se d\u00e9roule comme au V\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9la. Mais, cela n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi facile. Il n\u2019y a pas eu d\u2019issue d\u00e9cisive, et les attaques se sont sold\u00e9es par une situation pire encore. L\u2019ancien r\u00e9gime est demeur\u00e9 en place, le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz est rest\u00e9 bloqu\u00e9 et le prix des marchandises a grimp\u00e9 encore plus haut.<\/p>\n

Crude oil prices that had been drifting lower surged to over $110 a barrel on WTI. Grains and other commodities followed. Suddenly that dream of a drop in inflation vanished and with it, yields spiked. The month of March saw a rise in volatility and a fall in equity prices. Investor sentiment fell with the market.<\/p>\n

To further add to market uncertainty, the rise of AI was suddenly seen as a threat to many software companies as well as white-collar jobs. The Mag7 names that had previously looked invincible started to show cracks. The race to build data centres was sucking up the vast majority of the free cash flow these companies could generate.<\/p>\n

Most symbolic of the AI spend was the price of Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM). This overlooked technology commodity is in everything. As demand surged, prices followed, and we suddenly had another source of inflation. We believe the rise of DRAM, the move higher in oil prices, and the still present tariffs are likely making the case for interest rate cuts a challenge. We are even hearing calls for rate hikes, a scenario that had almost a zero chance of happening a few months ago.<\/p>\n

Pourtant, c\u2019est loin d\u2019\u00eatre le pire d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e pour le march\u00e9 des actions. La plupart des indices boursiers sont en hausse d\u2019environ 10 %, et les march\u00e9s obligataires prosp\u00e8rent. Selon nous, il y a encore beaucoup d\u2019argent qui dort dans les coffres en attendant d\u2019\u00eatre employ\u00e9 \u00e0 faire des achats d\u00e8s le moindre repli, ce qui contribue \u00e0 soutenir les march\u00e9s et \u00e0 emp\u00eacher la liquidation que plusieurs appr\u00e9hendaient.<\/p>\n

But at the halfway point of the year, while hard to believe, it's difficult to expect the second half to be much calmer. One overwhelming positive has been that corporate earnings were stronger than expected, and continued earnings resilience will likely remain important. There is also an expectation that the worst may be behind us for the US-Iran war, as neither side seemingly wants this to continue. In addition, there is a new FOMC Chair who must thread the needle of the need to lower inflation and not look like a puppet for a President Trump desperate for a strong economy heading into the Mid-Term elections. For Canada there remains the unlikely ability to reach an agreement on a new USMCA deal. All these questions will keep investors on their toes and have the potential to elevate volatility.<\/p>\n

Un aspect de ce march\u00e9 le diff\u00e9rencie des ann\u00e9es pass\u00e9es, et c\u2019est la quantit\u00e9 de nouvelles actions et obligations en circulation. Apr\u00e8s plusieurs ann\u00e9es pendant lesquelles les rachats par les entreprises ont r\u00e9duit l\u2019offre, la donne a chang\u00e9. L\u2019entr\u00e9e en bourse de SpaceX pourrait bien n\u2019\u00eatre que la premi\u00e8re d\u2019une suite de grandes transactions. Quant au revenu fixe, il s\u2019agit d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u2019une ann\u00e9e record pour les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9. Pour revenir aux mod\u00e8les simples en mati\u00e8re d\u2019offre et de demande, le soutien sous-jacent que procurait le nombre r\u00e9duit de parts disponibles n\u2019est plus, et l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019offre repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9sormais un obstacle.<\/p>\n

Si, l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, le march\u00e9 est impr\u00e9visible parce qu\u2019il est moins fr\u00e9quent\u00e9 et que le volume de transactions est inf\u00e9rieur, il est aussi notoirement volatil. Bien que les investisseurs doivent se r\u00e9jouir de ce d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e positif malgr\u00e9 plusieurs probl\u00e8mes r\u00e9els, ce n\u2019est pas le moment de faire preuve d\u2019une confiance excessive. Nous croyons que les gestionnaires actifs auront amplement l\u2019occasion de faire leurs preuves dans ce contexte, et qu\u2019ils doivent le faire. Profitez du beau temps, mais soyez pr\u00eat \u00e0 saisir les occasions cr\u00e9\u00e9es par les dislocations du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le Fonds<\/h3>\n

The Pender Alternative Select Equity Fund was lower by -2.8%1<\/a> <\/sup>for the month of June to finish the first half of the year up 19.2%.\u00a0This compares to the S&P\/TSX Composite return of 0.5% for June and 11.2% for the year-to-date. We came into June defensive with a higher amount of cash and an overweight position in precious metals (gold).\u00a0We had also trimmed exposure to areas of the market that seemed overbought and expensive on a valuation basis.\u00a0However, the month didn\u2019t go as planned as our gold exposure acted as a drag,\u00a0and several companies we had sold from the Fund kept moving higher.\u00a0Regardless, it has been a good start to the year, and we are optimistic for the second half.
\nThe strength of the US dollar remains one of the biggest headwinds to the portfolio. We remain positive on the commodity complex due to attractive supply vs demand metrics but until the US dollar breaks, lower prices will be under pressure. On weakness, we have added to this theme with a focus on the senior gold producers, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), as we believe it should lead the rebound as rate hike expectations fade and the dollar moves lower.\u00a0On the last day of the month, we added exposure to several of the Mag7 names, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), which have had a difficult start to the year.\u00a0These companies have been punished as \u2018AI losers\u2019, but the more we look into this, we believe that these Hyperscalers will be leaders in the next cycle.\u00a0Building a position in the MSFT after its worst month ever seems like a good entry point.<\/p>\n

The rise of levered ETFs is also starting to be a concern and might be the cause for some volatile movements this summer. During thinly traded markets, it\u2019s usually best to be ready to react to opportunities, and that is what we plan to do.\u00a0Earnings season will be a key focus for the coming weeks as companies will attempt to justify their price increases.\u00a0A rotation back towards the cyclicals looks likely for the balance of the year, and we are setting up to capture that.<\/p>\n

Greg Taylor, CFA
\n<\/strong>July 9, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/a><\/sup> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement des fonds alternatifs liquides de Pender sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund\/<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Insights The first half of the year had a little of everything. We have all come to expect the unexpected under President Trump but the events that have unfolded caught even the most cynical off guard. 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