{"id":73858,"date":"2026-06-18T10:26:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T17:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=73858"},"modified":"2026-06-30T14:02:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T21:02:33","slug":"pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender - Mai 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Perspectives de march\u00e9<\/h3>\n

Mai a \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s semblable \u00e0 avril, et pas seulement sur le plan de la m\u00e9t\u00e9o. Avril avait \u00e9t\u00e9 un mois positif pendant lequel les march\u00e9s boursiers avaient r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 presque toutes, sinon toutes, les pertes entra\u00een\u00e9es par la guerre au Moyen-Orient. Au d\u00e9but de mai, plusieurs observateurs financiers esp\u00e9raient que la pause se prolongerait. Les conditions qui avaient provoqu\u00e9 la liquidation de mars (hausse du prix du p\u00e9trole et des rendements obligataires) \u00e9taient non seulement toujours pr\u00e9sentes, mais elles s\u2019intensifiaient. Or, comme c\u2019est souvent le cas, le march\u00e9 boursier a fait ce qu\u2019il fait de mieux, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire prouver que la majorit\u00e9 avait tort, et a une fois de plus escalad\u00e9 le \u00ab\u2009mur de l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude \u00bb et termin\u00e9 le mois \u00e0 des hauteurs jamais atteintes \u00e0 ce jour.<\/p>\n

Ce qui a bel et bien chang\u00e9, toutefois, ce sont les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e0 la hausse des entreprises. \u00c0 l\u2019aube de la saison des r\u00e9sultats financiers du premier trimestre, une grande incertitude planait. La crainte quant aux r\u00e9percussions de l\u2019IA sur les entreprises de logiciels et sur les cols blancs avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 envahi les march\u00e9s plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e. Si l\u2019on ajoute \u00e0 cela l\u2019explosion du prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et l\u2019effondrement des cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales, tout semblait concourir \u00e0 cr\u00e9er une toile de fond parfaite pour inciter les hauts cadres des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 pr\u00f4ner la prudence. Or, ce ne fut pas le cas. Bien que certains d\u00e9taillants aient parl\u00e9 d\u2019un ralentissement au niveau des consommateurs ayant les revenus les plus faibles, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ont \u00e9t\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n

\u00c9videmment, les entreprises \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques ont affich\u00e9 des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e9tonnants malgr\u00e9 la flamb\u00e9e du prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res en cause, mais d\u2019autres secteurs ont \u00e9galement r\u00e9serv\u00e9 de bonnes surprises sur ce plan. La technologie a continu\u00e9 de mener le bal. En effet, les d\u00e9penses pour les projets associ\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA semblent rester importantes et, compte tenu de montant record du capital mobilis\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9 des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s, cette tendance ne semble pas pr\u00eate de ralentir d\u2019ici peu. Certains fabricants de semiconducteurs ont progress\u00e9, parfois de 70 % en deux mois, mais au sein de ce groupe, ce sont des noms diff\u00e9rents qui prennent les devants. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) a encore une fois publi\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats financiers record, mais le prix des parts d\u2019autres compagnies, comme ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) et Micron Technology Inc. (MU), ont augment\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Il a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 encourageant de voir les entreprises de logiciels se relever. Pour l\u2019instant du moins, les peurs quant aux cons\u00e9quences de l\u2019IA nous semblent exag\u00e9r\u00e9es. La plupart des entreprises ont affirm\u00e9 qu\u2019il y avait eu peu, ou pas, d\u2019effet sur la demande pendant le trimestre. Les parts d\u2019un grand nombre de ces compagnies ont bondi \u00e0 la suite de ces commentaires, sans doute gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des couvertures courtes. De pareils changements de prix sont souvent les fruits d\u2019un \u00ab cycle tardif \u00bb. Il est encore trop t\u00f4t pour affirmer que tel est le cas, mais cela reste \u00e0 surveiller. Des march\u00e9s aussi \u00e9troits que ceux que nous observons peuvent effectuer une volte-face rapide.<\/p>\n

Un th\u00e8me qui semble sur le point de s\u2019imposer est celui de l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019activit\u00e9 entrepreneuriale. L\u2019an pass\u00e9, les fusions et les acquisitions ont presque fracass\u00e9 un record et cette tendance semble en voie de se perp\u00e9tuer cette ann\u00e9e. Les investisseurs activistes ciblent agressivement les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s plus modestes dont la valeur a chut\u00e9. On remarque aussi un empressement certain \u00e0 annoncer et \u00e0 faire approuver les accords avant l\u2019\u00e9ventuel retour \u00e0 Washington plus tard cette ann\u00e9e d\u2019une administration moins amicale \u00e0 l\u2019endroit des entreprises.<\/p>\n

We are also getting ready for what could be the largest IPO in history, SpaceX.\u00a0This issue has the potential to set all sorts of records for hype and scale.\u00a0It also appears to have been able to circumvent the inclusion rules of several index providers to be added sooner than it usually would, potentially increasing broader market volatility.\u00a0Given the attention around this deal and what is at stake for many investment dealers, we believe there is likely a huge incentive to hold markets near record levels until it has closed.\u00a0Once that is done, who knows what will happen?<\/p>\n

One pattern that is increasingly pointed out is that during US mid-term election years there has been a tendency for a summer correction. Will this year be any different?\u00a0Of course, the sitting President has all the incentive in the world to try to show market gains heading into the vote, and Trump may not be any different.\u00a0There is also the added push to have everyone happy for the 250e<\/sup> anniversaire.e<\/sup>Mais cela ne repose pas enti\u00e8rement entre les mains d\u2019une seule personne.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des sommets historiques atteints par le march\u00e9, la possibilit\u00e9 que nous rations quelque chose et que nous nous fondions sur toutes ces bonnes nouvelles pour fixer les cours tout en faisant fi de certains risques est tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9sente. On continue de miser sur la fin prochaine du conflit au Moyen-Orient et sur la reprise d\u2019une circulation normale dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz. Le nouveau pr\u00e9sident du FOMC semble dispos\u00e9 \u00e0 adopter une attitude plus conciliante envers le march\u00e9, y compris en mettant en veilleuse les hausses de taux. Ajoutons \u00e0 cela l\u2019optimisme suscit\u00e9 par les forts b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et on pourrait difficilement demander mieux.<\/p>\n

Dans un tel contexte, le ratio risque-rendement sur le march\u00e9 boursier reste pr\u00e9occupant. Des voyants rouges clignotent, mais en soi, cela ne signifie pas qu\u2019il est temps de se retirer. Il se peut que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices continuent de cro\u00eetre, et il serait encourageant de voir la reprise s\u2019\u00e9tendre \u00e0 d\u2019autres secteurs. Cependant, la possibilit\u00e9 que l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 soit volatil demeure et il faut y prendre garde. Esp\u00e9rons qu\u2019il fera alors plus chaud.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le Fonds<\/h3>\n

En mai, le Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender a grimp\u00e9 de 2,4%1<\/a> <\/sup>en avril pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 22,7 %. Comparativement, l\u2019indice compos\u00e9 S&P\/TSX a affich\u00e9 un rendement de 2,5 % en avril et un cumul annuel de 10,6 %. Apr\u00e8s nous \u00eatre montr\u00e9s prudents \u00e0 l\u2019endroit de la technologie, nous avons accru notre exposition tactique au domaine du semi-conducteur au cours du mois, car son essor \u00e9tait, \u00e0 notre avis, trop marqu\u00e9 pour \u00eatre ignor\u00e9. Nous avons pris une position dans les actions du secteur de la m\u00e9moire par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire d\u2019une exposition \u00e0 DRAM ETF au d\u00e9but du mois, pour en sortir vers la fin de celui-ci apr\u00e8s en avoir tir\u00e9 des gains importants. Nous avons aussi tir\u00e9 des produits de ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) et de Lam Research Corp. (LRCX). \u00c0 la fin du mois, notre exposition \u00e0 la technologie \u00e9tait redescendue \u00e0 un point presque aussi bas que celui de l\u2019an pass\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nous continuons de penser que certaines parts du march\u00e9 des actions pr\u00e9sentent des risques \u00e0 de tels niveaux. La forte pr\u00e9dominance de la technologie aux \u00c9tats-Unis et dans le secteur bancaire canadien est pr\u00e9occupante. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous avons coup\u00e9 notre exposition \u00e0 ces groupes et ajout\u00e9 des options de vente en pr\u00e9vision d\u2019une baisse. La somme des capitaux mobilis\u00e9s sur les march\u00e9s des actions et du cr\u00e9dit pour financer le boom de l\u2019IA est inqui\u00e9tante et risque de surpasser la demande.<\/p>\n

Il n\u2019est pas facile de naviguer sur le march\u00e9 en \u00e9t\u00e9. Les volumes baissent habituellement sous la moyenne, car les vacances accaparent l\u2019attention. Certes, l\u2019ann\u00e9e a bien commenc\u00e9, mais nous ne pensons pas que ce soit le moment de courir des risques et nous sommes devenus plus d\u00e9fensifs. Le secteur de l\u2019or qui menait le bal l\u2019an pass\u00e9 a vu son prix d\u00e9clin\u00e9 depuis quelques mois. Nous en avons profit\u00e9 pour augmenter notre exposition et nous croyons que le secteur pourrait se relever au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre.<\/p>\n

Greg Taylor, CFA
\n<\/strong>18 juin 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/a> <\/sup>Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement des fonds alternatifs liquides de Pender sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund\/<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Insights The month of May felt an awful lot like April, and it\u2019s not just the weather. April was a positive month that saw equity markets recover most, if not all, of the March losses stemming from the US-Iran war concerns. 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