{"id":73844,"date":"2026-06-17T12:29:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T19:29:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=73844"},"modified":"2026-06-29T11:25:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T18:25:35","slug":"pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonds alternatif \u00e0 rendement absolu Pender - mai 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chers porteurs et porteuses de parts,<\/p>\n

Le Fonds alternatif \u00e0 rendement absolu Pender a affich\u00e9 un rendement de -0,4 %1<\/a><\/sup> en mai pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 0,7 %.<\/p>\n

En mai, l\u2019euphorie s\u2019est maintenue sur le march\u00e9 en mai, les d\u00e9penses apparemment sans limite en IA faisant le bonheur des investisseurs. Les titres \u00e0 revenu fixe ont continu\u00e9 de tirer de l\u2019arri\u00e8re parce que la mont\u00e9e de l\u2019inflation \u00e9tats-unienne et les perturbations sur les march\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9nergie ont souffl\u00e9 des vents contraires sur les obligations gouvernementales \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale. Les titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d\u2019une pause dans les \u00e9missions li\u00e9es aux centres de donn\u00e9es qui avait pes\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s \u00e0 la fin d\u2019avril.<\/p>\n

Pour sa part, l\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du Fonds, soit l\u2019indice HFRI Credit (couvert en CAD), a termin\u00e9 mai \u00e0 0,9 %, \u00e9tablissant son cumul annuel \u00e0 3,0 %.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le march\u00e9 et le portefeuille<\/h3>\n

La pause marqu\u00e9e par les \u00e9missions li\u00e9es aux centres de donn\u00e9es a permis \u00e0 nos positions de cro\u00eetre dans la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 de mai, ce qui nous a donn\u00e9 la possibilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9duire substantiellement notre exposition au secteur. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il y ait d\u2019autres vagues d\u2019\u00e9missions et de meilleurs points d\u2019entr\u00e9e dans le courant de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Le secteur du logiciel a rebondi en mai, car les r\u00e9sultats de certains \u00e9metteurs ont \u00e9t\u00e9 meilleurs que pr\u00e9vu. Nous avons profit\u00e9 de cette hausse pour r\u00e9duire notre exposition \u00e0 ce secteur. Nous pr\u00e9voyons en effet que le reste de l\u2019ann\u00e9e verra l\u2019humeur ambiante et les valorisations fluctuer et qu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de mai et au d\u00e9but de juin, les \u00e9carts descendront autour de la limite inf\u00e9rieure de la fourchette des n\u00e9gociations.<\/p>\n

Il semble que le march\u00e9 soit rest\u00e9 optimiste quant \u00e0 la reprise rapide de la circulation des produits \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques au Moyen-Orient. Pour notre part, nous y avons vu l\u2019occasion de distribuer le capital vers des \u00e9metteurs de titres \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 au moyen de nos strat\u00e9gies ax\u00e9es sur le revenu et la valeur relative. Le Fonds a achet\u00e9, sous le pair, l\u2019obligation \u00e9tats-unienne \u00e0 5 ans r\u00e9cemment \u00e9mise par Kraken Oil and Gas Partners LLC (priv\u00e9e) avec un rendement de 7,125 %. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 le faible endettement de 1,2 x, le BAIIDA et une exposition lucrative au secteur des mat\u00e9riaux, nous croyons que la valeur de l\u2019obligation est avantageuse si on la compare \u00e0 celles en cours sur l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9, quoiqu\u2019il arrive au Moyen-Orient.<\/p>\n

Les op\u00e9rateurs de centre de donn\u00e9es \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle ont continu\u00e9 de solliciter les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit en mai. Au d\u00e9but du mois, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) a \u00e9mis la plus grande obligation jamais offerte par une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 en dollars canadiens \u2014 8,5 milliards $ CAN \u2014 qui a toutefois \u00e9t\u00e9 surpass\u00e9e par celle de 14 milliards $ CAN \u00e9mise par Amazon.com Inc. en juin. Jugeant que l\u2019\u00e9mission d\u2019Alphabet \u00e9tait int\u00e9ressante, nous avons pris une participation dans l\u2019obligation \u00e0 30 ans en contrepartie d\u2019une couverture sur la dur\u00e9e, et l\u2019avons revendue apr\u00e8s l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019\u00e9cart. Nous n\u2019avons pas investi dans l\u2019\u00e9mission d\u2019Amazon en l\u2019absence de concessions quant au prix. Le march\u00e9 mondial de titres \u00e0 revenu fixe \u00e9tant satur\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9missions li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA, il semble que le march\u00e9 des actions ait pris le relais en juin. Il s\u2019agit l\u00e0 d\u2019un insigne changement de r\u00e9gime. Le march\u00e9 \u00e9tant soutenu par de vastes programmes de rachat depuis de nombreuses ann\u00e9es, cela pourrait \u00e9ventuellement \u00eatre un catalyseur susceptible de faire dispara\u00eetre la r\u00e9cente divergence entre le march\u00e9 du cr\u00e9dit et celui des actions.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Il y a presque deux mois que le march\u00e9 \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 et celui des actions divergent, et le pass\u00e9 nous a appris que, la plupart du temps, c\u2019est le cr\u00e9dit qui est le grand indicateur. Le sachant, et consid\u00e9rant que les \u00e9carts sont minces comme ils l\u2019ont rarement \u00e9t\u00e9 ant\u00e9rieurement, nous maintenons notre posture d\u00e9fensive. Au d\u00e9but de juin, certains signes indiquent, selon nous, que la hausse exaltante du prix des actifs des deux derniers mois pourrait perdre de sa vigueur.<\/p>\n

Perspectives de march\u00e9 \u2014 Les actions prennent la rel\u00e8ve<\/strong><\/h3>\n

La premi\u00e8re vague de d\u00e9penses en capital pour l\u2019IA consenties par les op\u00e9rateurs de centre de donn\u00e9es \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle venait de liquidit\u00e9s et de leurs prodigieux flux de tr\u00e9sorerie. Une fois ces sources taries, ils se sont tourn\u00e9s vers les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit sur lesquels les \u00e9missions se sont consid\u00e9rablement multipli\u00e9es l\u2019automne dernier. Les \u00e9missions en lien avec l\u2019IA et les centres de donn\u00e9es ont envahi les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit cette ann\u00e9e, mais le besoin en financement s\u2019est encore exacerb\u00e9. Ce besoin a pouss\u00e9 Alphabet Inc. \u00e0 annoncer, d\u00e9but juin, une lev\u00e9e de fonds par \u00e9mission d\u2019actions de 86 milliards $, dont 40 milliards $ par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire d\u2019un programme de participation au capital ATM qui ne verra le jour qu\u2019au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Cette initiative d\u2019Alphabet, qui a tir\u00e9 profit de l\u2019entr\u00e9e en bourse de SpaceX tout comme ses concurrents en IA, Anthropic et OpenAI, prouve que les actions sont d\u00e9sormais au c\u0153ur de la course aux capitaux dans ce secteur.<\/p>\n

Il se pourrait que 2026 soit la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e d\u2019offre nette positive en actions \u00e9tats-uniennes (\u00e9missions moins rachats) en 23 ans2<\/sup><\/a>, ce qui constitue un changement de r\u00e9gime majeur. Cela ne comprend pas la lev\u00e9e de la p\u00e9riode d\u2019inaccessibilit\u00e9 qui se produit g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement six mois apr\u00e8s l\u2019entr\u00e9e en bourse. Si l\u2019on prend pour exemple CoreWeave, on pourrait voir \u00e0 la prochaine vague de PAPE un grand nombre de ventes d\u2019initi\u00e9s \u00e0 la fin de la p\u00e9riode d\u2019inaccessibilit\u00e9, ce qui a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas lors de la folie internet de la fin des ann\u00e9es 1990.<\/p>\n

Mark Twain a dit que l\u2019histoire ne se r\u00e9p\u00e8te pas, mais elle rime. \u00c0 la fin de 2024, nous avons \u00e9cout\u00e9 un balado exceptionnel, In Good Company<\/a><\/em> dans lequel Stan Druckenmiller s\u2019entretenait avec Nicolai Tangen, PDG de Norges Bank Investment Management, le fonds d\u2019investissement souverain de la Norv\u00e8ge. Pendant leur conversation, Stan a rappel\u00e9 comment il avait n\u00e9goci\u00e9 la fin de la bulle internet\u2009; il a parl\u00e9 des jeunes courtiers qui gagnaient de 4 % \u00e0 5 % par jour sur les actions internet. Le prix de l\u2019action m\u2019avait sembl\u00e9 exorbitant quand je l\u2019avais entendu pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 2024, mais il me para\u00eet maintenant banal en ce printemps 2026 alors que l\u2019indice des semiconducteurs \u00e9tats-unien monte fr\u00e9quemment de 5 % par jour. Rappelons que ce ne sont pas des fluctuations de prix normales pour un march\u00e9 qui devrait logiquement actualiser les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie \u00e0 long terme d\u2019une entreprise.<\/p>\n

De nos jours, les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit font \u00e9cho aux longues p\u00e9riodes de calme qui ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 les pics des cycles ant\u00e9rieurs. Au train o\u00f9 vont les choses, nous verrons en 2026 l\u2019\u00e9cart moyen le plus bas sur le march\u00e9 des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s depuis 1997. Plus ces p\u00e9riodes durent longtemps, plus important est l\u2019ajustement requis lorsque le go\u00fbt du risque change, ce qui donne souvent lieu \u00e0 des pr\u00e9visions exag\u00e9r\u00e9es et des occasions int\u00e9ressantes. Bien qu\u2019il soit impossible de pr\u00e9dire l\u2019\u00e9volution de ce march\u00e9, il nous appara\u00eet clairement que le comportement des investisseurs arrive \u00e0 son apog\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Param\u00e8tres du portefeuille<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le Fonds a pass\u00e9 le fil d\u2019arriv\u00e9e du mois de mai arm\u00e9 d\u2019une pond\u00e9ration longue de 135,6 % (excluant la tr\u00e9sorerie et les bons du Tr\u00e9sor). Dans celle-ci, 36,9 % relevaient de notre strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 revenu fixe r\u00e9gulier, 97,5 % de notre strat\u00e9gie ax\u00e9e sur la valeur relative et 1,2 % de notre strat\u00e9gie visant l\u2019investissement \u00e9v\u00e9nementiel. Le Fonds renfermait en outre une pond\u00e9ration courte de -70,3 %, dont -3,7 % dans les obligations du gouvernement, -43,8 % dans les titres de cr\u00e9ance d\u2019entreprises et -22,8 % dans les actions. La dur\u00e9e de r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration corrig\u00e9e des effets de la clause de remboursement anticip\u00e9 (option-adjusted duration ou OAD) se chiffrait \u00e0 1,29 an.<\/p>\n

En excluant les positions se n\u00e9gociant \u00e0 des \u00e9carts de plus de 500 pb et les participations se n\u00e9gociant en vertu d\u2019une date d\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance ou de rappel de 2028 ou ant\u00e9rieure, l\u2019OAD du Fonds a baiss\u00e9 \u00e0 0,92 an.<\/p>\n

Le taux de rendement actuel du Fonds est de 6,36 % et le taux de rendement \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance de 6,57 %.<\/p>\n

Justin Jacobsen, CFA<\/strong>
\n<\/strong>17 juin 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/a><\/sup> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement du Fonds sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund\/<\/em><\/p>\n

2<\/a><\/sup> Financial Times, June 2026<\/a><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dear Unitholders, The Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund returned -0.4%1 in May, bringing year to date return to 0.7%. Euphoric market conditions continued in May, as ever-increasing AI spending was celebrated by investors. Fixed income continued to lag as an uptick in US inflation and the ongoing disruption to energy markets proved to be a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":70752,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"fund-type":[45,46],"class_list":["post-73844","commentaries","type-commentaries","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","fund-type-pender-liquid-alternative-funds","fund-type-pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPender Alternative Absolute Return Fund - May 2026 - PenderFund Capital Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund-may-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund - May 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dear Unitholders, The Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund returned -0.4%1 in May, bringing year to date return to 0.7%. 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