The equity market rally that closed out the month of March continued through April. This rally has baffled many and is becoming a notable example of what is referred to as the \u2018pain trade\u2019. Given recent headlines, many investors had gone defensive. Yet, against all odds, markets finished the month near all-time highs.<\/p>\n
\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 la quantit\u00e9 d\u2019indicateurs n\u00e9gatifs, la majorit\u00e9 des investisseurs aurait (et avait) cru que les bourses s\u2019inclineraient. Ce ne fut pas le cas. Il se peut que ce soit parce que la plupart des \u00ab\u2009mauvaises nouvelles\u2009\u00bb avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 prises en compte lors de la liquidation de mars, et que rien de \u00ab\u2009pire\u2009\u00bb n\u2019\u00e9tait arriv\u00e9 depuis, d\u2019o\u00f9 la hausse.<\/p>\n
Selon les derniers rapports, les tensions entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran ont men\u00e9 \u00e0 un statu quo pr\u00e9caire; il est par ailleurs difficile d\u2019y trouver un quelconque gagnant. Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste ferm\u00e9 et on ignore l\u2019ampleur des dommages caus\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019infrastructure \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Le prix du p\u00e9trole brut, qui s\u2019\u00e9tait stabilis\u00e9 durant le cessez-le-feu, a repris sa progression et termin\u00e9 le mois pr\u00e8s de ses r\u00e9cents sommets. Si pendant quelques semaines la corr\u00e9lation entre le p\u00e9trole et les actions a \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9gative, cette relation s\u2019est \u00e9tiol\u00e9e ces derni\u00e8res semaines.<\/p>\n
While the equity market seems to have ignored the move in energy prices, the bond market did not. Bond yields moved higher most of the month, broadly in line with oil prices. This was expected to be the year of rate cuts, but those odds have collapsed as inflation may be beginning to increase. Again, these are events that more recently would have resulted in lower stock prices, but for some reason that did not happen.<\/p>\n
So, what may be supporting the stock market? For one, the mega-cap technology stocks that were sold aggressively beginning in February on concerns around \u2018peak AI\u2019 have rebounded. The business case for the massive spend on AI data centres has yet to be proven, but the spending has not slowed and appears to have kicked off a capital expenditure boom in the US. Semiconductors related to this rose significantly over the period, leading the Nasdaq 100 to a gain of nearly 15% for the month.<\/p>\n
In Canada, the surge in oil prices has finally led to a bounce in the energy sector, offsetting some of the weakness in materials, as gold fell for the month. In one of the more positive developments in years, Shell PLC expanded in Canada with the acquisition of ARC Resources Ltd. After over 10 years of foreign capital exiting the country, there is optimism that trend could begin to reverse, bringing back spending on new projects.<\/p>\n
So, what to do next? Get ready to hear a lot of \u2018sell in May and go away\u2019. It is a trading saying that has not worked in years but there is a reason it exists and there is potential for it to work this year.<\/p>\n
Cash is being pulled off the sidelines and shorts are being covered. There is still an underlying belief that the energy crisis will go away as quickly as it started. The longer this isn\u2019t the case the market may become increasingly risky. We believe there is a lot of evidence that the bulk of the buying during the month was driven by systematic investing. If these models flip to sell, or pause, we could see a mirror image of this month. The trading relationships around higher yields and oil, that were ignored in April, could begin again at any time. You just never know when.<\/p>\n
The Pender Alternative Multi-Strategy Income Fund was down -0.1% for April and is now higher by 1.6%1<\/a> <\/sup>YTD. The Fund\u2019s blended benchmark\u202freturned\u202f2.2%2<\/sup><\/a> and 2.6%\u00a0for the same period.<\/p>\n For our long\/short credit exposure, the Pender Alternative Absolute Return Fund (PAARF) is used to dampen volatility and provide downside protection in choppy markets. The Fund has been able to deliver on that expectation to start a very volatile 2026. After a strong relative performance in March, the Fund was lower in April by -2.0%3<\/a><\/sup> and is now positive by 1.1%YTD. The Fund\u2019s benchmark returned 2.4%4<\/sup><\/a> and 3.3% for the same period.<\/p>\n The Fund owns\u202fthe Pender Corporate Bond Fund (PCBF)\u202ffor its total return and opportunistic credit\u202fapproach. This was a key factor in its strong returns last year and is off to a great start for the year.\u202fPCBF\u202fis higher by 1.5%5<\/a><\/sup>\u202ffor April and is now higher by 3.6% YTD.<\/p>\n The market neutral\/merger arbitrage exposures for the Fund come\u202fthrough the\u202fPender Alternative Arbitrage Plus Fund\u202f(PAAPF). PAAPF was 0.0%6<\/sup><\/a>\u202ffor April, it is now lower by -0.4% YTD. The Fund\u2019s benchmark returned\u202f2.3%7<\/sup><\/a> and 3.5% for\u00a0the same\u202fperiod.\u202f\u202fLast year was a record year for corporate activity in the United States and the environment looks strong for that to continue into 2026.<\/p>\n We continue to\u202fmonitor\u202fcorrelations across the different Fund exposures and will introduce\u202fadditional\u202fasset classes or make tactical shifts should opportunities arise.\u202fGiven the current phase of historically tight credit spreads, we remain in a more\u00a0defensive stance and have increased our allocation to PAARF.\u202fWe\u202fbelieve\u202fthat M&A activity is expected to increase, which should act as a catalyst for PAAPF.\u202fEntering\u00a0the seasonal choppy summer months,\u00a0we are looking for opportunities to add to our exposure in PCBF in the event of market dislocations.\u202fCash can be used as a\u202fcomponent\u202fof the asset mix but is not material\u202fat this point in time.<\/p>\n Greg Taylor, CFA 1<\/a><\/sup> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement du Fonds sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-multi-strategy-income-fund\/<\/em><\/p>\n 2<\/a><\/sup> L\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence mixte du Fonds est constitu\u00e9 \u00e0 9 % de l\u2019indice universel obligataire canadien FTSE, \u00e0 25 % de l\u2019indice ICE BofA US High Yield Index, \u00e0 33 % de l\u2019indice HFRI Credit (couvert en CAD) et \u00e0 33 % dans l\u2019indice HFRI ED : Merger Arbitrage (couvert en CAD)<\/em><\/p>\n 3<\/a><\/sup> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement du Fonds sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-absolute-return-fund\/<\/em><\/p>\n 4<\/a><\/sup> L\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence utilis\u00e9 est l\u2019indice HFRI Credit (USD). L\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du Fonds est le HFRI Credit (couvert en CAD).<\/em><\/p>\n 5<\/a><\/sup> Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement du Fonds sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-corporate-bond-fund\/<\/em><\/p>\nPositionnement du portefeuille<\/h3>\n
\nMay 29, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n