{"id":73442,"date":"2026-05-12T15:18:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T22:18:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/?post_type=commentaries&p=73442"},"modified":"2026-05-14T09:49:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T16:49:59","slug":"pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-april-2026","status":"publish","type":"commentaries","link":"https:\/\/penderfund.com\/fr\/commentaries\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund-april-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender - avril 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Perspectives de march\u00e9<\/h3>\n

La remont\u00e9e boursi\u00e8re entam\u00e9e \u00e0 la fin de mars s\u2019est poursuivie en avril. Cette hausse en a d\u00e9concert\u00e9 plus d\u2019un et elle est en train de devenir le parfait exemple de ce qu\u2019on appelle le \u00ab\u2009pain trade\u2009\u00bb \u2014 expression signifiant que le march\u00e9 va dans le sens contraire \u00e0 celui qu\u2019on attendait et entra\u00eene des pertes substantielles. \u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui ont fait la une, plusieurs investisseurs avaient opt\u00e9 pour la d\u00e9fensive. Or, contre toute attente, les march\u00e9s ont termin\u00e9 le mois pr\u00e8s de sommets historiques.<\/p>\n

\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 la quantit\u00e9 d\u2019indicateurs n\u00e9gatifs, la majorit\u00e9 des investisseurs aurait (et avait) cru que les bourses s\u2019inclineraient. Ce ne fut pas le cas. Il se peut que ce soit parce que la plupart des \u00ab\u2009mauvaises nouvelles\u2009\u00bb avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 prises en compte lors de la liquidation de mars, et que rien de \u00ab\u2009pire\u2009\u00bb n\u2019\u00e9tait arriv\u00e9 depuis, d\u2019o\u00f9 la hausse.<\/p>\n

Selon les derniers rapports, les tensions entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran ont men\u00e9 \u00e0 un statu quo pr\u00e9caire; il est par ailleurs difficile d\u2019y trouver un quelconque gagnant. Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste ferm\u00e9 et on ignore l\u2019ampleur des dommages caus\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019infrastructure \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Le prix du p\u00e9trole brut, qui s\u2019\u00e9tait stabilis\u00e9 durant le cessez-le-feu, a repris sa progression et termin\u00e9 le mois pr\u00e8s de ses r\u00e9cents sommets. Si pendant quelques semaines la corr\u00e9lation entre le p\u00e9trole et les actions a \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9gative, cette relation s\u2019est \u00e9tiol\u00e9e ces derni\u00e8res semaines.<\/p>\n

Alors que le march\u00e9 des actions semble avoir ignor\u00e9 les fluctuations du prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, le march\u00e9 des obligations a pour sa part r\u00e9agi autrement. Les taux de rendement obligataires ont mont\u00e9 durant le plus clair du mois, de concert avec le prix du p\u00e9trole. On s\u2019attendait \u00e0 ce que cette ann\u00e9e soit celle des baisses de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, mais cet espoir s\u2019est effondr\u00e9 lorsque l\u2019inflation a recommenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer. Encore une fois, il n\u2019y a pas si longtemps, de tels \u00e9v\u00e9nements auraient fait baisser le cours des actions, mais pour une raison quelconque, ce n\u2019est pas arriv\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Qu\u2019est-ce qui maintient donc la demande sur le march\u00e9 boursier? D\u2019une part, les titres des g\u00e9antes de la technologie, qui avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 vendus sans retenue au d\u00e9but de f\u00e9vrier en raison des craintes entourant \u00ab\u2009la bulle de l\u2019IA\u2009\u00bb, ont rebondi. La justification commerciale des d\u00e9penses colossales r\u00e9alis\u00e9es par les centres de donn\u00e9es de l\u2019IA n\u2019a pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9montr\u00e9e, mais les d\u00e9penses en capital n\u2019ont pas ralenti. Au contraire, elles semblent jouir d'un boum aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Les semiconducteurs associ\u00e9s \u00e0 ce mouvement ont aussi connu une envol\u00e9e importante pendant cette p\u00e9riode, conduisant le Nasdaq 100 \u00e0 progresser d\u2019environ 15 % durant le mois.<\/p>\n

Au Canada, la flamb\u00e9e du prix du p\u00e9trole a fini par faire rebondir le secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, ce qui a contrebalanc\u00e9 en partie la faiblesse des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, notamment de l\u2019or qui a recul\u00e9 au cours du mois. Dans ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019un des d\u00e9veloppements les plus positifs depuis nombre d\u2019ann\u00e9es, Shell PLC s\u2019est \u00e9tendue au Canada gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019acquisition d\u2019ARC Resources Ltd. Alors que depuis 10 ans les capitaux \u00e9trangers fuyaient le pays, on ose croire que cette tendance est sur le point de s\u2019inverser, ramenant ici les d\u00e9penses touchant \u00e0 de nouveaux projets.<\/p>\n

Et maintenant, que faire? Pr\u00e9parez-vous \u00e0 entendre souvent la phrase c\u00e9l\u00e8bre : \u00ab\u2009en mai, on vend et on se sauve\u2009\u00bb (Sell in May and go away). Cette strat\u00e9gie financi\u00e8re n\u2019a pas march\u00e9 depuis des ann\u00e9es, mais elle existe pour une raison, et celle-ci pourrait bien se concr\u00e9tiser cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

L\u2019argent s\u2019accumule sur la ligne de touche et les positions courtes sont couvertes. Au fond, on continue d\u2019esp\u00e9rer que la crise de l\u2019\u00e9nergie dispara\u00eetra aussi vite qu\u2019elle est apparue. Plus longtemps elle durera, plus le march\u00e9 deviendra risqu\u00e9. Selon toute \u00e9vidence, le gros des achats effectu\u00e9s ce mois-ci a \u00e9t\u00e9 aliment\u00e9 par l\u2019investissement syst\u00e9matique. Si cette tendance prend une direction contraire vers la vente, ou marque une pause, le mois de mai pourrait devenir le reflet inverse d\u2019avril. La corr\u00e9lation entre les taux de rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s et le p\u00e9trole, dont on a fait fi en avril, pourrait r\u00e9appara\u00eetre sans crier gare. On ne sait juste pas quand.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour sur le Fonds<\/h3>\n

Le Fonds alternatif d\u2019actions s\u00e9lect Pender a grimp\u00e9 de 3,4 % en avril pour \u00e9tablir son cumul annuel \u00e0 19,8 %1<\/a><\/sup>. Comparativement, l\u2019indice compos\u00e9 S&P\/TSX a affich\u00e9 un rendement de 3,8 % en avril et un cumul annuel de 7,9 %. Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent cette ann\u00e9e, la th\u00e9matique s\u2019articule autour de la rotation sectorielle. Bien que notre participation aux marchandises ait \u00e9t\u00e9 favorable pour le Fonds cette ann\u00e9e, notre pond\u00e9ration dans l\u2019or a nui au rendement mensuel.<\/p>\n

C'est la technologie qui a men\u00e9 la charge de la remont\u00e9e des actifs risqu\u00e9s en avril, plus particuli\u00e8rement les entreprises de semiconducteurs. Nous avons des participations dans SHOPIFY Inc. (SHOP), Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) et Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), mais nous avons r\u00e9duit notre avoir dans d\u2019autres noms qui ont ensuite joui d\u2019une hausse importante. \u00c0 la fin du mois, nous avons augment\u00e9 notre couverture par rapport au Nasdaq dans ce que nous consid\u00e9rons \u00eatre des domaines fortement risqu\u00e9s du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Le secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie brille de tous ses feux cette ann\u00e9e, port\u00e9 par la hausse du prix des marchandises. Nous y avons privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 l\u2019uranium, mais avons plus r\u00e9cemment rench\u00e9ri sur les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s expos\u00e9es au p\u00e9trole, d\u2019avis que les prix continueront de grimper sur une p\u00e9riode plus longue. L\u2019acquisition d\u2019ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX) a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 de nouvelles hausses et a donn\u00e9 un coup de main \u00e0 certains noms du secteur du gaz naturel, tels que Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU), lesquels avaient pris du retard dans cette remont\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous conservons un positionnement d\u00e9fensif tout en tentant de garder la cadence du march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une rotation sectorielle. Maintenant que nous avons r\u00e9alis\u00e9 des profits du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la technologie, nous nous int\u00e9ressons aux produits industriels et aux services financiers. Selon nous, les rotations se poursuivront tout au long de 2026 et la volatilit\u00e9 sera exacerb\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat am\u00e9ricaines.<\/p>\n

Greg Taylor, CFA
\n<\/strong>12 mai 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/a> <\/sup>Tous les rendements signal\u00e9s sont ceux des parts de cat\u00e9gorie F du Fonds, \u00e0 moins d\u2019indication contraire. D\u2019autres cat\u00e9gories de parts sont offertes. Celles-ci pourraient pr\u00e9senter des frais et des rendements diff\u00e9rents. Les donn\u00e9es standards sur le rendement des fonds alternatifs liquides de Pender sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici : https:\/\/www.penderfund.com\/fr\/fund\/pender-alternative-select-equity-fund\/<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Insights The equity market rally that closed out the month of March continued through April. This rally has baffled many and is becoming a notable example of what is referred to as the \u2018pain trade\u2019. Given recent headlines, many investors had gone defensive. Yet against all odds markets finished the month near all-time highs. 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